Bitget UEX Daily Report | Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Drive Up Oil Prices; SK Hynix Predicts Continued Storage Shortage by 2030; Bitcoin Fluctuates Around $64,000

1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Updates

Rising Energy Prices May Impact Federal Reserve's Inflation Path Assessment

The weekend saw an escalation in the US-Iran conflict, pushing oil prices higher, with the market focusing on the potential transmission of energy costs to US inflation data.

Today, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller will deliver speeches, likely addressing inflation and policy outlooks.

Analysis: If oil prices remain elevated, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's rationale for maintaining a cautious stance, providing some support for the dollar index in the short term, while increasing the risk of fluctuations in interest rate expectations.

International Commodities

Escalation of US-Iran Conflict Leaves Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz Uncertain

Last Sunday, US forces and Iranian troops engaged in missile and drone attacks, with Iran claiming to target US military facilities in multiple Gulf countries and announcing the closure of the strategically significant Strait of Hormuz once again.

Trump stated, "For the US, the Strait of Hormuz remains open," but there are significant discrepancies in statements regarding navigation conditions.

Analysis: The incident directly raises geopolitical risk premiums, with WTI crude oil surging over 3% to nearly $74 per barrel. The market will closely monitor OPEC's monthly report and subsequent supply dynamics, with short-term energy price volatility expected to remain high.

Macroeconomic Policy

Tech Giants Borrow to Support AI Infrastructure as White House Pressures Intel for Revival

Silicon Valley tech companies are issuing bonds on a large scale to finance AI infrastructure, with Amazon issuing a single bond of $25 billion. AI-related bond types are performing the weakest amid sell-offs.

The White House has prioritized Intel's revival, pressuring Apple and Nvidia to use Intel's foundry while Apple sues OpenAI for allegedly stealing secrets for AI hardware development.

Analysis: This reflects that the AI capital expenditure boom is ongoing, but it also exposes risks from rising financing costs and supply chain policy interventions, potentially exacerbating the divergence in the semiconductor and tech sectors.

2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: $4,070/oz, -1.2%
• Spot Silver: $58/oz, -2.12%
• WTI Crude Oil: $74.39/barrel, +4%
• Brent Crude Oil: $79/barrel, +3.8%
• Dollar Index (DXY): 101.174, +0.21%

Driving Factors Analysis: The escalation of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend became the main variable for the market. Iran's announcement of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (which accounts for about 20% of global oil transport) directly raised energy risk premiums, with WTI and Brent crude oil quickly rising over 3%. The dollar index strengthened slightly, while 10-year US Treasury futures fell, reflecting a coexistence of risk aversion and inflation concerns. Both spot gold and silver retreated, indicating that the strong dollar's suppressive effect on precious metals temporarily outweighed the geopolitical safe-haven buying. Institutional views suggest that short-term oil prices will maintain high volatility, depending on whether the conflict escalates further or OPEC signals an increase in production; precious metals will need to observe the subsequent dynamics between the dollar and real interest rates. The overall asset linkage logic is clear: geopolitical risk → energy prices ↑ → potential inflation pressure → dollar and bond market under pressure, precious metals under short-term pressure but still have allocation value in the medium term.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: $64,070, +0.19%
• ETH: $1,830, +1.9%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: $2.25 trillion, +0%

Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24h: $147 million, long position liquidation: $80 million.

BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is around $63,960, with a large number of short liquidations concentrated in the $64,300-$64,900 range, especially around $64,800 where there is strong liquidation pressure. If this range is broken, it may trigger short squeezes and push prices further up. Liquidations for long positions are mainly concentrated in the $63,000-$63,500 range, but the cumulative scale is significantly smaller than that of short liquidations above, indicating that the short-term liquidation magnetic effect still leans towards the upside, with the market having the momentum to continue challenging above $64,500.

Driving Factors Analysis: The crypto market demonstrated strong resilience amid the weekend's geopolitical conflict, with Bitcoin fluctuating narrowly around $64,000, appearing more stable than spot gold. ETH slightly outperformed BTC, possibly related to network activity or capital rotation in DeFi. ETF fund flows warmed (with a net inflow of nearly $90 million yesterday), indicating that institutional allocation willingness has not significantly weakened due to external events. The scale of leveraged liquidations was moderate (totaling $131 million), with a near balance in long and short ratios, suggesting a lack of extreme one-sided pressure conditions in the current price range. Institutional consensus believes that under macro uncertainty, the correlation between crypto assets and traditional risk assets has decreased, but if the US tech sector continues to perform strongly, BTC may rise with risk appetite; short-term vigilance is needed regarding the indirect impact of rising oil prices on global risk assets.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: 52,637.01 points (+0.29%), with three consecutive days of slight gains
• S&P 500: 7,575.39 points (+0.42%), with tech-weighted stocks contributing the main gains
• Nasdaq: 26,281.61 points (+0.29%), led by AI and semiconductor sectors

Tech Giants Updates

• NVDA: $210.96 (+4.03%)
• AAPL: $315.32 (-0.28%)
• MSFT: $385.10 (+0.19%)
• GOOGL: $357.18 (-0.48%)
• AMZN: $245.34 (-0.69%)
• META: $669.21 (+5.97%)
• TSLA: $407.76 (+0.30%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: US stocks saw slight gains on Monday, with a clear divergence in the tech sector. Meta and Nvidia led the gains, benefiting from the release of new AI models and positive signals during roadshows indicating "quarterly revenue nearing $100 billion with accelerating growth." Nvidia emphasized that Rubin Ultra has not been delayed, and the proportion of computing power from top clients has risen to nearly 50%, further reinforcing market confidence in its long-term dominance. Apple, however, faces dual pressures: suing OpenAI for intellectual property infringement while being pressured by the White House to support Intel's foundry, resulting in relatively restrained stock price gains. The overall sector trend shows that AI capital expenditure and efficiency improvement themes remain dominant, while traditional valuation pressures have temporarily yielded to leading companies. Institutions believe that as long as the pace of AI commercialization does not significantly slow down, tech giants will remain the core driving force of the US stock market.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor and AI-related sectors rose over 2-4% (represented by NVDA, MU)

Representative Stocks: NVDA rose over 4%, MU followed suit.

Driving Factors: Nvidia's roadshow released strong demand signals, and SK Hynix's CEO stated that "storage will still be in short supply by 2030," boosting confidence in the sector; while the White House's support for Intel policy has led to short-term divergence, the overall logic of AI computing power and advanced process demand remains unchanged.

3. In-depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Meta Platforms - Leader in AI Model Efficiency Competition

Event Overview: Meta's stock price rose nearly 6% on Monday, performing outstandingly against the backdrop of OpenAI, Meta, and SpaceX launching lower-cost AI models simultaneously. The company continues to advance its Llama series open-source strategy, emphasizing cost-effectiveness under enterprise-level AI spending reviews. Market Interpretation: Multiple investment banks believe that Meta has high long-term growth certainty driven by both advertising business and AI infrastructure; the release of new models further consolidates its competitiveness in the generative AI field, supporting valuation premiums. Investment Insight: Short-term focus on advertising recovery and AI capital return rates, while still being one of the core targets for tech growth in the medium term.

2. NVIDIA - Demand Exceeds Expectations, Rubin Ultra Progressing as Planned

Event Overview: Nvidia's roadshow released positive signals, with quarterly revenue nearing $100 billion and growth still accelerating, and there has been no delay in the Rubin Ultra chip; a leading frontier model client has seen its computing power share rise to nearly 50%. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally maintain optimistic ratings, believing that under the dual drive of AI training and inference demand, Nvidia is unlikely to be surpassed in the short term; while rising customer concentration brings certain risks, it also reflects its technological barriers and ecological advantages. Investment Insight: A pullback presents a layout opportunity, with a focus on tracking the shipment rhythm and gross margin performance of Blackwell/Rubin.

3. Apple Inc. - Dual Variables of Intellectual Property Litigation and Policy

Event Overview: Apple has officially sued OpenAI, accusing it of stealing secrets for AI hardware development, demanding an end to the infringement and destruction of related materials; simultaneously facing pressure from the White House to adopt Intel's foundry to support domestic semiconductor revival. Market Interpretation: Investment bank views are divided; on one hand, the lawsuit highlights Apple's emphasis on its ambitions for AI hardware, while on the other hand, policy interventions may affect its supply chain flexibility and cost structure, potentially suppressing valuation expansion in the short term. Investment Insight: Focus on the progress of the lawsuit and the pace of iPhone AI feature rollout, with long-term reliance on ecology and hardware innovation.

4. Amazon.com - Major Bond Issuance to Support AI Infrastructure

Event Overview: Amazon issued $25 billion in bonds, primarily for AI data centers and infrastructure construction; during the same period, the overall debt issuance wave among tech giants triggered a sell-off in the bond market, with AI-related credit types performing relatively weakly. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this move reflects that AI capital expenditure is entering a substantial implementation phase, but rising financing costs and pressure on the bond market also signal risks; Amazon's AWS cloud business will remain a major beneficiary. Investment Insight: Focus on the increase in the proportion of AWS AI-related revenue, while being wary of the impact of macro interest rate environment changes on tech financing.

4. Project & Market Dynamics

1. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that short-term Bitcoin holders (STH) have been in a state of long-term loss, which is one of the more obvious market characteristics in each bear market cycle. Data shows that Bitcoin prices have been below the short-term holder cost basis (STH Cost Basis) for over 9 months. Historically, these long-term STH loss phases are often highly correlated with bear market cycles.

Currently, the short-term holder cost basis for Bitcoin is about $70,700, which continues to constitute an upper resistance level. Darkfost pointed out that the market trend in May has already reflected this pressure, when BTC tested this area around $82,000 before quickly encountering a pullback. However, the recent short-term holder cost basis for Bitcoin has shown a significant decline, indicating that some investors are accumulating at low levels, and new buying funds are lowering the overall holding cost. Darkfost believes that whether Bitcoin can regain the short-term holder cost basis will become an important signal for judging market trend changes.

2. Fidelity: Bitcoin has entered a long-term value observation zone, and a short-term reversal still requires liquidity to return.

3. Michael Saylor has once again released Bitcoin Tracker information, which may disclose changes in holdings data this week.

4. IrrationAlanalysis reported that sources revealed Nvidia has decided to temporarily abandon the use of TSMC's COUPE (Compact Universal Photonic Engine) technology solution, due to TSMC's slow progress in advancing silicon nitride (SiN) technology and the development of two-dimensional grating couplers not meeting expectations.

5. The rift between OpenAI and Apple is deepening, and Apple's lawsuit may cast a shadow over OpenAI's upcoming first hardware device, which is expected to be released as early as February next year. Analysts believe this legal dispute may also affect OpenAI's IPO plans, increasing uncertainty for potential investors.

6. According to The Kobeissi Letter disclosed on platform X, US economic growth is now entirely centered around AI. AI investment currently accounts for over 25% of US GDP growth, setting a new historical high.

5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

• 05:25 ET US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaks ⭐⭐⭐
• 12:30 ET US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks ⭐⭐⭐
• 14:00 ET US June Federal Budget ⭐⭐

Important Event Forecast

Federal Reserve Officials' Speeches: Several officials will express their views on the economy and policy outlook today, focusing on assessments of energy prices and inflation.

Middle East Situation Progress: Continuously track the US-Iran conflict and navigation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz; any signals of escalation or de-escalation may trigger significant market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Multiple Wall Street investment banks point out that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend is currently the main short-term variable for the market. The rapid rise in oil prices has fully reflected the geopolitical risk premium but has not yet evolved into a systemic risk event. The equity market shows resilience, with tech and AI themes still dominating fund flows, indicating that investors' confidence in fundamental growth remains greater than external disturbances. Precious metals are under short-term pressure from a strong dollar, while the crypto market shows a certain degree of independence through moderate fluctuations and ETF fund inflows. Analyst consensus believes that if the conflict remains controllable, risk assets still have allocation value in the medium term; if oil prices rise further and push up inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve's policy path may see marginal changes, and the dollar and US Treasury yields will face repricing. It is recommended to pay attention to the wording of the Federal Reserve's speeches and OPEC's subsequent statements, with a focus on defensive position management.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search and verified by humans for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice. The data in the text inevitably contains deviations, please refer to the market's real-time data.