Analyzing Bitcoin’s Current Mispricing vs. Gold and Global Liquidity Expansion

By: crypto insight|2025/12/03 08:00:06
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Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s price currently reflects a significant undervaluation compared to global monetary supply, suggesting a model-based fair valuation near $270,000.
  • Gold has absorbed most of 2025’s liquidity bids, currently overshooting the global M2 by 75%.
  • Despite the current low trading price, global liquidity conditions present a bullish environment for Bitcoin ahead of 2026.
  • The disparity between Bitcoin’s underperformance and gold’s robust performance highlights a potentially lucrative opportunity for mean reversion in Bitcoin.

WEEX Crypto News, 2025-12-03 07:44:14

In recent months, Bitcoin’s (BTC) trading characteristics have exhibited a stark disconnect from wider macroeconomic trends, notably its divergence from the surging global liquidity and money supply expansion. Despite this, financial experts suggest that this mispricing could soon correct, offering a significant opportunity for savvy investors. Through the lens of macroeconomic models and evaluations, Bitcoin seems positioned for a potentially impressive run as it seeks to align with broader monetary trends that have largely favored other assets, like gold.

Dissecting Bitcoin’s Current Mispricing

Bitcoin is estimated to be undervalued by about 66% in relation to the global money supply. A model developed by Bitwise, a prominent cryptocurrency asset management firm, indicates that Bitcoin’s fair market value might be closer to $270,000. This valuation is derived from Bitcoin’s historical sensitivity to monetary expansions due to its inherent scarcity. Financial analysts suggest that the existing macroeconomic environment is conducive for Bitcoin to eventually correct its course and achieve its implied valuation, particularly as it has traditionally been viewed as a hedge against inflation.

When juxtaposed against gold, which is known for its stability and historical importance as a store of value, Bitcoin’s sluggish performance becomes more apparent. In 2025, gold absorbed much of the year’s liquidity influx, outperforming projections by overshooting the global money supply by 75%. This robust performance further emphasizes gold’s continued investor confidence as a secure asset amid economic turbulence. The variance between gold and Bitcoin’s performances in recent times sets a notable precedent; historically, such a divergence is often followed by a reversion of sorts, potentially allowing Bitcoin to capitalize on its position.

Global Liquidity Surge and Bitcoin’s Lag

The global financial landscape is currently marked by significant liquidity expansion. Various monetary policies across the world’s largest economies are contributing to this liquidity surge. In the United States, for example, the issuance of approximately $1.9 trillion in annual Treasurys, coupled with planned $2,000 stimulus checks, alongside the cessation of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening as of December, are notable factors. Similarly, nations like Japan, Canada, and China have initiated substantial fiscal measures to boost liquidity, including Japan’s $110 billion stimulus package and China’s overarching $1.4 trillion fiscal initiative.

This extensive monetary expansion has resulted in global M2 money supply reaching an unprecedented $137 trillion. However, Bitcoin has not yet mirrored this expansion in its pricing, resulting in what Bitwise’s latest analyses suggest as one of the most significant valuation gaps in Bitcoin’s history. The expectation is that this disconnection will close, propelling Bitcoin towards an anticipated upswing, potentially realizing a gain upwards of 194% as per its long-term liquidity anchor assumptions.

Prospect of Risk-Adjusted Returns and Institutional Insights

Notably, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, discussed the disparity between Bitcoin and gold in terms of momentum and Sharpe ratio metrics. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of return generated relative to an asset’s volatility, currently favors gold, suggesting it offers better risk-adjusted returns compared to Bitcoin. This gap frames the two assets as polar opposites, yet also creates an intriguing scenario where Bitcoin could be poised for mean reversion — an alignment closer to its historical valuations aligned with macroeconomic factors.

Zooming out, despite its underperformance, Bitcoin remains consistent with its long-term adoption trajectories. While the current price points might reflect a less volatile asset compared to gold, Bitcoin’s adaptability and resilience highlight its potential as a strategic long-term investment. The current valuation interplay between Bitcoin and gold effectively underscores Bitcoin not as a direct competitor but perhaps as a younger alternative that may eventually mature and consolidate its value proposition in the broader financial ecosystem.

Conclusion on Bitcoin’s Trajectory

Overall, Bitcoin’s mispricing amidst a backdrop of global monetary expansion signals a noteworthy opportunity for alignment correction over the coming years. This dynamic, characterized by its comparison to gold’s recent performance and consistent investor faith in gold as a secure asset, underscores Bitcoin’s idiosyncratic potential. As Bitcoin’s developmental phases intersect with fluctuating macroeconomic elements, its ability to revert and achieve its fair valuation continues to gain speculative traction among investors and financial analysts alike.

FAQ

What factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s current undervaluation?

Bitcoin’s current undervaluation is attributed to its underperformance relative to the rapid expansion of global liquidity and money supply. While global monetary policies have increased liquidity considerably, Bitcoin’s reaction has lagged behind, creating a significant valuation gap aligned with macroeconomic models.

How does Bitcoin compare to gold’s performance in 2025?

In 2025, gold absorbed the majority of the year’s liquidity influx and significantly outperformed expectations by overshooting the global money supply by approximately 75%. In contrast, Bitcoin has yet to adjust to these global monetary trends, marking a unique divergence in their performance.

What potential does Bitcoin have for future valuation corrections?

Considering the macroeconomic environment and Bitcoin’s historical positioning as a hedge against inflation, there is potential for Bitcoin to realize gains of up to 194%, aligning with its model-implied valuation near $270,000. This prognosis addresses the gap between its current pricing and the global monetary expansion, suggesting a significant upward correction.

How might changes in global liquidity policies affect Bitcoin?

Changes in global liquidity policies, such as aggressive fiscal measures and monetary easing, are likely to impact Bitcoin positively. As liquidity expands, assets like Bitcoin, known for scarcity and as inflation hedges, could capitalize on these trends, potentially improving their valuations.

What is the long-term outlook for Bitcoin relative to its current market status?

In the long term, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate alignment with its power-law adoption curve, despite short-term pricing anomalies. As it matures with limited but consistent returns, Bitcoin is expected to strengthen its standing in the broader financial landscape as both an asset and a currency.

The evolving financial narrative positions Bitcoin in an intriguing place — one bound for potential transformation, aligning macroeconomic factors with its intrinsic value proposition as a scarce and revolutionary currency.

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