美联储6月会议纪要关注重点:观望期在夏季结束,9月可能降息
BlockBeats 消息,7 月 9 日,美联储 6 月会议纪要关注重点:
· 7 月降息的希望多大:特朗普 1.0 任命的沃勒和鲍曼都表示将考虑在 7 月会议上降息、关税对物价的影响可能是短暂的。
· 观望期在夏季结束,9 月可能降息:会议纪要或将暗示「利率轨迹将取决于 6 月、7 月和 8 月公布的数据」,「观望」期可能会在夏末结束。会议纪要可能表明,委员会预计在夏季结束前将获得做出降息决策所需的数据。若情况符合预期,这将强化市场对 9 月降息的预期。
· 降息门槛下降:美联储 6 月会议纪要读起来可能更为鸽派。6 月会议鲍威尔倾向于使用中性语言,但会议纪要可以更好地反映鲍威尔没有明确表示的内容:降息的门槛正在下降。
· 内部分歧线索:六月 19 位官员中,7 位认为今年不需要降息,2 位预计将降息一次,8 位认为两次降息,2 位预计将降息三次。分析师将寻找导致这种分歧的线索。是什么支撑了 7 位美联储官员的观点,让他们认为 2025 年根本不会降息。
· 双重使命的担忧:此前美联储经济预测显示,在今年剩余时间里,物价上涨的速度将会加快,但在 2026 年,即使利率预计会下降,价格上涨的速度也会再次下降。另外关注是否存在对就业市场强劲程度的严重担忧。(金十)
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