They missed out on $2 million because Maduro wasn't going to be home for the holidays
At 2:00 AM local time in Venezuela on Saturday, while President Nicolás Maduro was still deep in the dreams of the New Year holiday, a raid by US Special Forces concluded the battle in just 1 hour and transported Maduro onto a plane to the United States.
This world-shocking "blitz" seemed to come out of nowhere, but on the prediction market leader platform Polymarket, it appeared to have been a cash-out tool for several insiders even before the operation took place.
3 Pentagon Employees "Betting While Working Overtime"
Hours before the operation began, three wallets with no history on Polymarket suddenly started heavily betting on the highly improbable outcome of "Maduro being removed from power by January 31, 2026."
At that time, the mainstream view in the market still believed that Trump would pursue a mild siege strategy to force Maduro to compromise, with the probability of "yes" in this market at only 5%. However, as Maduro was boarded onto the plane, these three mysterious accounts instantly pocketed over $500,000 in profit.
It was only afterwards that everyone began to redefine the purchases made by the three individuals in the hours before the airstrike: only those with reliable intelligence could, within such a precise time window, execute a "dimensionality reduction" with new accounts.
These three insiders are:
0xa72db1749e9ac2379d49a3c12708325ed17febd4, profit $74,982.34;
0x6baf05d193692bb208d616709e27442c910a94c5, profit $145,619.92;
0x31a56e9e690c621ed21de08cb559e9524cdb8ed9, profit $409,882.03.
But the information provided by Polymarket goes far beyond just this.
Maduro's "Flight Delay": US Operation Was Supposed to Take Place 4 Days Earlier
There are two very representative addresses that, although they profited from this action, actually lost a significant amount of money because they knew the information too early.
Like the aforementioned 3 insiders, Chiwawas also made a precise $10,000 bet 3 hours before this airstrike, earning over $70,000 as a result.
However, Chiwawas had actually heavily bet nearly $40,000 on December 26 on the "Maduro being removed from power by 2025" outcome in this market.
Based on his insider status, it can be inferred that he must have received accurate information before placing a large bet. However, unfortunately, the arrest operation that was supposed to take place on December 29th was canceled due to weather conditions. Thunderstorms in the Caribbean region forced the US military to cancel the operation for tactical security reasons.
This point was also confirmed in Trump's latest address: "The airstrike against Maduro was scheduled to take place 4 days ago (i.e., the night of December 29, 2025, to the early morning of the 30th)."
Therefore, since the outcome settled as "no" on the last day of 2025, this transaction, with the arrival of 2026, led to a significant loss in his account.
If everything had gone according to Chiwawas's script, his account should have been settled at a whopping $750,000 on December 30th.
Unfortunately, the weather didn't cooperate. The thunderstorms at sea not only disrupted the US military's planned airstrike but also shattered Chiwawas's dream of making a fortune during the Christmas holiday using military intelligence.
Fortunately, when he learned that the US military would resume the operation in the early hours of January 3rd, he rallied again, recharging his account and placing bets. This final gamble, while unable to make up for the regret of missing out on $750,000, ultimately brought his account's total profit back into positive territory, reaching $34,000.

Chiwawas Address: 0x168b100d7a6620a2f49a455344c2c006eaf1714b
Aside from Chiwawas, another account also missed out on a huge profit due to the weather. Since the end of last month, he has been betting around $20,000 on multiple related outcomes, such as "US-WA conflict occurs within the year" and "Nothing happens: national leader loses power," firmly believing that the US-WA conflict would occur in the remaining days of 2025 and Maduro would fall from power.
If not for the weather impact, he should have welcomed a massive $1.04 million profit on the 30th.
Like Chiwawas, after enduring a huge loss, he bet "US-WA conflict occurs by 2026.1.15" three hours before the airstrike, making a profit of over $40,000.
Conclusion
Only 3 days into 2026, and we have already seen Polymarket emerge not just as a prediction platform, but as an ATM for individuals across industries to leverage their information advantage, exploiting 'alpha' and 'time alpha'.
As Polymarket's visibility continues to grow, who knows what magical insider stories will unfold here this year?

You may also like

US Senate Agriculture Committee Schedules January 27 for Crypto Market Structure Hearing
Key Takeaways The Senate Agriculture Committee will release its crypto market structure bill on January 21, followed by…

Tether Freezes $182 Million in Assets in a Day: Is USDT Still a Neutral Coin?
Key Takeaways Tether recently froze $182 million in USDT across five wallets on the Tron blockchain, raising questions…

a16z Secures $15 Billion: Redefining Venture Capital Through Visionary Storytelling
Key Takeaways a16z Raises Capital: The firm has raised an astronomical $15 billion, marking a significant point in…

BitGo’s Revenue Surges with Upcoming IPO as Institutional Interest Grows
Key Takeaways BitGo, a major player in cryptocurrency custody, aims to raise $201 million through a U.S. IPO…

80% of Oil Revenue Settled in Stablecoins: Venezuela’s USDT Dominance
Key Takeaways Venezuela’s economy heavily relies on USDT, with 80% of oil revenue settled using this stablecoin, showcasing…

Tether Freezes $182 Million in Assets in One Day, Is USDT Still a Neutral Coin?

Error Prevented Content Extraction: Causes and Solutions
Key Takeaways Excessive requests can result in blocked access to data sources. Ensuring adherence to API usage policies…

80% of oil income settled in stablecoins, Venezuela makes USDT its second currency

After Stepping Down as Mayor of New York City, He Pivoted to Selling Cryptocurrency

Binance Lists United Stables as a New Trading Option
Key Takeaways Binance is adding United Stables (U) to its platform, expanding its offerings in digital currencies. United…

New Drag-to-Set TP/SL Candlestick Chart Feature on Web
Make risk management more intuitive and efficient! The WEEX web platform is introducing the "Drag-to-set TP/SL" feature.

2026 Top Transaction Themes: Trump's Sore-Loser Attitude, the End of the International Order

Most US debanking cases stem from government pressure, says report
Key Takeaways A report from the Cato Institute indicates that most debanking incidents in the US originate from…

UK Lawmakers Urge Ban on Political Donations in Crypto
Key Takeaways: A group of senior UK lawmakers is pushing for a legislative ban on political donations in…

Russia Targets Illegal Crypto Miners; India Advocates for CBDCs: A Global Overview
Key Takeaways Russia is intensifying efforts to regulate illegal cryptocurrency mining, proposing significant fines and penalties. India’s Reserve…

Crypto Rich Threaten to Depart California Amid New Tax Proposal
Key Takeaways Proposed California tax imposes a 5% assets tax on residents with over $1 billion, sparking debate…

zkSync Price Forecast – ZK Value Anticipated to Decline to $0.026629 by January 15, 2026
Key Takeaways zkSync’s current price is $0.034635, with an anticipated drop to $0.026629 by mid-January 2026. The crypto…

South Korea to Lift Longstanding Ban on Corporate Crypto Investments
Key Takeaways South Korea is lifting a nine-year ban on corporate cryptocurrency investments, allowing firms to invest up…
US Senate Agriculture Committee Schedules January 27 for Crypto Market Structure Hearing
Key Takeaways The Senate Agriculture Committee will release its crypto market structure bill on January 21, followed by…
Tether Freezes $182 Million in Assets in a Day: Is USDT Still a Neutral Coin?
Key Takeaways Tether recently froze $182 million in USDT across five wallets on the Tron blockchain, raising questions…
a16z Secures $15 Billion: Redefining Venture Capital Through Visionary Storytelling
Key Takeaways a16z Raises Capital: The firm has raised an astronomical $15 billion, marking a significant point in…
BitGo’s Revenue Surges with Upcoming IPO as Institutional Interest Grows
Key Takeaways BitGo, a major player in cryptocurrency custody, aims to raise $201 million through a U.S. IPO…
80% of Oil Revenue Settled in Stablecoins: Venezuela’s USDT Dominance
Key Takeaways Venezuela’s economy heavily relies on USDT, with 80% of oil revenue settled using this stablecoin, showcasing…