Sam Altman New Year Outlook: AI Revolution Underway, First Wave of AI Agents Expected to Join Labor Market This Year

Original Author: Sam Altman

Original Translation: DeepTech TechFlow

Just over a month has passed since ChatGPT's second birthday, and now we have entered a new era of models capable of complex reasoning. The new year always prompts reflection, and I want to take this opportunity to share some personal insights about this journey and some of the gains along the way.

As we get closer to AGI, now is a crucial moment to look back on the progress our company has made. There is still much unknown to explore, many questions to answer, and everything is still in its early stages. But compared to the beginning, we have learned a lot.

We founded OpenAI about nine years ago because we believed AGI was possible and had the potential to be the most impactful technology in human history. We wanted to find a way to build AGI and ensure that it could benefit humanity widely; at the same time, we also longed to write our own chapter in history. Our goals were grand, and we firmly believed that this work could give back to society in an equally grand way.

At that time, almost no one cared about AGI. If anyone paid attention, most thought we could not succeed.

By 2022, OpenAI was still a low-key research lab developing a project temporarily called "Chat With GPT-3.5" (our research far outpaced our naming skills, indeed). We noticed that developers loved the experience of conversing with the model through the API's playground feature. So, we thought that building a demo around this conversational experience would not only showcase the future possibilities to people but also help us improve the model's performance and safety.

In the end, we decided to name it ChatGPT and officially launched it on November 30, 2022.

We always vaguely knew that someday the AI revolution would come, but we did not know what that moment would look like. To our surprise, this release became that turning point.

The launch of ChatGPT sparked an unprecedented surge of growth—both within our company, across the industry, and globally. We finally saw the enormous potential of AI and could foresee that there are more breakthroughs to come in the future.

This road has not been smooth, and making the right choices has never been easy.

Over the past two years, we have built an entire company almost from scratch around this new technology. Faced with such a challenge, the only way to learn is to figure it out in practice. When the technology itself is brand new, no one can tell you exactly how to do it.

Building a company at such a rapid pace, with almost no existing experience to draw upon, inevitably leads to chaos. We often take two steps forward, one step back (sometimes even one step forward, two steps back). While mistakes are continuously corrected along the way, blazing a trail in an entirely new field leaves almost no manual or clear direction to follow. Rapidly advancing in uncharted territory is an exciting experience, but for all involved, it is also a tremendous source of pressure. Conflicts and misunderstandings are unavoidable.

These years have been the most fulfilling, fascinating, and rewarding of my life, but also the most exhausting and stressful. Especially the past two years could even be described as the most challenging period, yet my deepest feeling is one of gratitude. I know that one day, when I am retired and sitting on a farm watching plants grow, feeling somewhat bored, I will reminisce about the time I had the opportunity to realize my childhood dreams, and how fortunate that was. I try to remind myself of this every Friday, even if by early afternoon, seven things have already gone wrong.

On a certain Friday about a year ago, what caught me off guard was being suddenly fired during a video call, with absolutely no warning. Right after we hung up, the board immediately released a blog post announcing the news. I was in a hotel room in Las Vegas at the time, and the feeling was almost indescribable, like a beautiful dream turning into a nightmare.

Being publicly fired without any warning led to hours of chaos and even more days filled with uncertainty. The strangest part was the state of "information chaos." None of us could get a clear answer about what had happened or why.

In my view, this entire event was a governance failure, even though all involved had good intentions, including myself. Looking back, I certainly wish I had handled things differently at the time. I am also willing to believe that the me of today is more mature and thoughtful than a year ago.

This event made me realize that a board needs diverse perspectives and rich experiences to deal with complex challenges. Good governance must be built on a deep foundation of trust and reputation. I am grateful that many have worked together to establish a stronger governance system for OpenAI, enabling us to continue our mission of pursuing AGI for the benefit of all humanity.

My biggest insight over this year is that I have too much to be grateful for and too many people to thank: thanks to all colleagues at OpenAI who chose to dedicate their time and energy to realizing this dream; thanks to friends who supported us in times of crisis; thanks to customers and partners who trusted us, collaborated with us, and relied on our technology for success; and thanks to those in my life who have shown care towards me.

Following that, we came together in a more cohesive and positive way to re-engage with our work. I am incredibly proud of the focus we have shown since then. We have accomplished some of the most outstanding research work in OpenAI's history. Our weekly active users have grown from approximately 100 million to over 300 million. Most importantly, we have continued to introduce technologies to the world that people truly love and that can address real-world problems.

Nine years ago, we had no clue what we would ultimately become. Even today, we only have a vague understanding of the future. The evolution of AI has been filled with ups and downs, and we anticipate more challenges and opportunities in the future.

Among these changes, some have been delightful, while others have posed challenges. Ongoing research breakthroughs have been exhilarating, and many former skeptics have now become staunch supporters. Of course, we have also witnessed some colleagues choose to leave and become our competitors. With the continuous expansion of the team, personnel turnover is inevitable, with OpenAI's growth rate being particularly astonishing. Startups typically experience turnover with each scale-up, but at OpenAI, this change occurs almost on a monthly basis. The changes of the past two years are equivalent to a decade of development in a regular company. When a leading company in an industry grows at such a rapid pace, inevitably, team members' goals and priorities diverge. At the same time, as a front-runner in the industry, we have unavoidably become the subject of various criticisms and attacks, especially under pressure from competitors.

Our vision has never wavered, but our strategy will continue to adjust and evolve over time. For example, initially, we never thought we would need to establish a product company; we believed we only needed to focus on conducting excellent research. Similarly, we did not anticipate needing such a vast amount of funding to support our work. Now, we need to build many things that we could not have imagined just a few years ago. And in the future, there will undoubtedly be more new challenges awaiting us that we currently find hard to foresee.

We are proud of the achievements we have made so far in research and technology applications and are committed to continuing our in-depth exploration of safety and benefit sharing. We have always believed that the best way to make AI systems safe is by gradually and rhythmically introducing them to the world, giving society enough time to adapt and evolve alongside the technology. Continuously learn from practical applications and improve the security of the technology. We understand deeply that becoming a global leader in safety and alignment research is crucial, and this research needs to be guided by real-world feedback.

Today, we are confident that we have mastered the traditional approach to building AGI. We believe that by 2025, we may see the first batch of AI Agents "entering the workforce" and significantly boosting enterprise productivity. This will be a historic moment. We still believe that gradually placing exceptional tools in people's hands is the best way to achieve broad and profound impact.

We have already begun to shift our focus to a grander objective, which is the pursuit of true superintelligence. While we are passionate about our existing products, our mission is to strive for that brighter future. With superintelligence, we will be able to achieve all imaginable goals. Superintelligent tools will greatly accelerate scientific discoveries and technological innovations, helping us solve complex problems that are beyond human capacity alone, thus significantly enhancing societal well-being and prosperity.

Now, all of this may sound like science fiction, and even discussing it may seem a bit crazy. But that's okay—we have faced similar situations before, and embracing such a challenge once again fills us with excitement. We are very confident that in the coming years, everyone will see the same prospects we see and realize how essential it is to maintain a high degree of caution while maximizing universal benefits and empowerment. Given the potential and possibilities of our work, OpenAI is destined to be no ordinary company.

I feel both fortunate and deeply honored to be able to participate in this endeavor.

(Thanks to Josh Tyrangiel for inspiring me. I really wish we could have had more time to interact.)

During those days, many people contributed greatly to OpenAI and myself, but two individuals' performances stood out.

The assistance of Ron Conway and Brian Chesky far exceeded the requirements of their roles to the point where I don't even know how to express my gratitude. I had long heard about Ron's capabilities and relentless spirit, and over the past few years, I have received countless help and advice from Brian.

However, it is only when standing shoulder to shoulder with someone in a true crisis that you can truly see their extraordinary abilities. I can say without exaggeration that without their help, OpenAI might have collapsed. They worked around the clock for several days until the issue was completely resolved.

Despite their intense workload, they always remained calm, demonstrating clear strategic thinking and providing invaluable advice. They prevented me from making several mistakes, and they made none themselves. Leveraging their extensive networks, they met all needs and successfully dealt with many complex situations. I am certain they also did many things of which I am unaware.

Yet, what moved me the most was their care, compassion, and support.

I thought I knew how to support a founder and a company, to some extent, I did. But I had never seen, nor even heard of support like theirs. Now I finally understand why they have such legendary reputations. They truly are exceptional and fully deserve such acclaim. They both possess extraordinary abilities to overcome obstacles and provide assistance in critical moments, demonstrating unwavering commitment. Our tech industry is better because of them.

Of course, there are others like them. This is something special about the tech industry that is more important than people realize, and it is what keeps the whole industry running smoothly. I look forward to carrying on this spirit.

On a more personal note, I want to especially thank Ollie for his support during that weekend and beyond. He is unmatched in every way and no one could ask for a better partner.

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