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Polymarket's $7M Prize Pool Misallocated Due to "Attack," Correct Bettors Face Loss
原文标题：《Polymarket 遭遇预言机操控攻击，大户竟可利用票权「颠倒黑白」？》
原文作者：Azuma， Odaily 星球日报
昨日晚间，曾在美国大选期间爆火的预测市场 Polymarket 遭遇了项目创立以来最严重的一次预言机操控攻击，导致一个押注规模超 700 万美元的预测池给出了错误的结果判定，最终押注了正确结果的用户们损失惨重，反而是押注了错误结果的用户们拿走了奖池内的所有资金。
涉事预测池为「乌克兰是否会在四月之前与特朗普达成稀土交易协议」，在现实世界中，美乌双方尚未就该交易达成协定，所以该预测池的判定结果理应为「否」。然而如下图所示，该预测池的判定结果在结算之前意外地转向了「是」，最终造成了这一是非颠倒的局面。
为什么会出现这种情况呢？答案在于 Polymarket 的判定机制上。Polymarket 依赖于预言机 UMA 来进行事件的结果判定，其判定流程如下：
· 结果报告：事件发生后，任何人都可以向 UMA 报告结果。
· 争议窗口：报告提交后会有一个争议期，任何人若认为报告有误均可提出争议。若无人争议，报告结果将被接受；若有争议，UMA 的争议解决机制会决定最终结果。
· 争议解决：UMA 代币持有者需投票决定正确结果，UMA 会对诚实行为进行激励，并对作恶行为进行惩罚。
根据 Polymarket 方面的流程记录，该预测池最终走到了第三步流程，这意味着有人对原始报告的结果提出了争议，所以需要通过 UMA 投票来决定最终结果。
而根据 UMA 方面的最终投票结果，54.6% 的选票无视事实地选择了「是」，强行推动该预测池将最终结果判定为「是」。
而根据 Reddit 用户 @iamtheone 的记录，UMA 投票初期另一个选项「现在下结论还太早」一度占优，但最终阶段有神秘力量向「是」的选项投入了数百万枚 UMA，强行改变了投票结果。
与此同时，UMA 的价格也曾在 3 月 22 日无故暴涨 24% ，随后逐渐回落，或意味着该神秘力量早在数日前便已筹备好了计划。
该 Reddit 用户补充表示，这并不是 Polymarket 之上的首例预言机操控事件，该平台此前已发生多起小额市场操纵（比如将委内瑞拉总统判定为 Edmundo González，声称特朗普对诺克斯堡进行了审计），但本次涉案金额最大，涉事预测池的押注总金额超 700 万美元。
而造成该事件的关键原因在于，Polymarket 赖以做出最终决策的 UMA 投票机制仅对错误投票设置了 0.05% 的惩罚，这使得作恶成本极低，在扭转事实的巨额潜在利润面前，诈骗者有充足的动机去实施预言机操控。
更令人震惊的是，Polymarket 官方人员今晨在 Discord 内发布公告表示，已获悉该意外情况，但无法对用户进行退款。
我们已获悉乌克兰稀土协定预测市场的异常情况。该市场的结算结果与用户预期及我方此前的澄清相悖。由于此次事件不构成系统故障，我们无法进行退款操作。当前情况实属前所未有。我们已与 UMA 团队展开全天候紧急会议，确保此类事件不再发生。这绝非我们想要构建的未来——我们将建立更完善的系统监控机制，制定更明确的规则框架，并优化时效性更强的澄清流程。具体措施将在全面评估后陆续公布。
不难想象，Polymarket 的这一回应很快便遭到了社区的口诛笔伐，原始预测池的下方评论区现已累积了 5554 条评论，大量用户都在抨击 Polymarket 的机制与回应。
作为去年整个加密货币市场最惊艳的项目之一，Polymarket 显然并不缺钱去足额赔付，如此回应势必会损害其市场信誉及社区情感。考虑到当前沸沸扬扬的社区情绪，后续事态能否有转圜余地，Odaily 星球日报将继续实时跟进。
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