Matrixport: Reinforcing the View of "Rate Cut in September," Near-Term Market Trend May Still Consolidate

BlockBeats News, August 8th, Matrixport released its weekly research report stating that the market has recently entered a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin losing momentum and both funding rates and trading activity cooling off. Volume has shrunk, funding rates remain low, and market structure is showing signs of loosening. Meanwhile, August's seasonal disturbances combined with external uncertainties have led to a notably cautious short-term sentiment. From a technical perspective, the $112,000 level previously provided support during this round of initial pullback, but subsequent rebound attempts have been weak, indicating that this support level is likely to be tested again. If breached, the $106,000 range may once again become the market's focus.

The premise for a true bearish scenario is a sustained weakening of the U.S. economy without a timely Fed rate cut. The current market conditions further reinforce the view that a "rate cut in September is possible." However, as the Fed has not yet provided a clear signal, the market may continue to wait and see, entering a period of consolidation. Even though overall corporate earnings data have generally exceeded expectations, the market trend may continue to consolidate, as most positive factors have already been priced in, and investors are waiting for new catalysts to drive the market. In the very short term, oversold stochastic indicators may suggest the possibility of a technical rebound, but doubts remain about its sustainability, leaning more towards the belief that the price will continue to range.

The key issue Bitcoin currently faces is whether the repricing of U.S. economic growth expectations will lead to an increase in actual volatility. As volatility continues to decline, some publicly listed companies holding a large amount of Bitcoin have seen a contraction in their Net Asset Value (NAV), weakening their ability to raise funds through new stock issuances and further increase their Bitcoin holdings. Although these companies have recently been in the spotlight, the real key factor suppressing this round of the market is actually the continued selling pressure from early investors. It is still advisable to remain patient, waiting for clear signals of a bottom or for market momentum to recover. In Bitcoin trading, if you do not sell at a high, you will not be able to reallocate at a low.