Magic Eden launch is imminent, with the market already anticipating 40U?

At 10 PM Beijing time tonight, Magic Eden's Token $ME will be available for airdrop claim. Currently, driven by the news of being listed on Binance, the price of $ME in OKX pre-market trading has surpassed $6, corresponding to a market capitalization exceeding $750 million.

The pre-market price can essentially reflect the opening price of $ME tonight on CEX. However, for a period after the opening, how $ME's price will develop, players have written three completely different scripts from three different perspectives.

Perspective 1 - Solana's Second NFT Marketplace (Benchmarked against $TNSR)

This perspective is now mostly abandoned because the pre-market price's corresponding market capitalization of $ME is already higher than $TNSR's FDV, even about 7 times higher than $TNSR's market capitalization.

So why was $TNSR used as a benchmark before? Players who used $TNSR as a benchmark for $ME were probably more focused on the Solana NFT ecosystem. In the Solana NFT ecosystem, Magic Eden indeed relinquished its position as Solana's first NFT marketplace to Tensor.

However, from the statistical data on user count and trading revenue, Tensor has not overwhelmingly outperformed Magic Eden. In terms of 30-day trading revenue, the two only differ by $15,000, sharing the spotlight. Moreover, in terms of 1-year trading revenue, Magic Eden even leads Tensor by $3.6 million.

Perspective 2 - Bitcoin's Premier DEX

Those standing at this perspective are primarily players in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Although in everyone's impression, the Bitcoin ecosystem is just average, with only one of the top 10 projects by total market value being Bitcoin Puppets, precisely ranked 10th, and all the projects ahead are ETH NFT projects.

However, in the long period before the recent resurgence of ETH NFTs, Bitcoin NFTs might have been the most active NFT ecosystem. Magic Eden holds a dominant position in this ecosystem. Within the past year, of Magic Eden's 1.5 million users, only 26% are from the Bitcoin network, but these users have generated over $40 million in revenue for Magic Eden, accounting for 69% of the total revenue in the past year.

In the past year, Magic Eden's revenue was $60 million, and this does not even account for Magic Eden's other monopolistic business on Bitcoin — the Rune Runes token.

The Rune Runes protocol is a new Bitcoin FT protocol that launched after Bitcoin's halving in April of this year. Magic Eden charges a 1% buyer fee on Runes transactions, and the total trading volume of the top 10 Runes tokens on Magic Eden is approximately $6 billion. Just the trading volume of the top 10 Runes tokens has brought Magic Eden $6 million in revenue in about six months.

So from the perspective of Bitcoin players, Magic Eden is a giant on Bitcoin, and the Bitcoin ecosystem is highly scalable. In their eyes, the expectation for $ME is basically no less than 6U.

Angle 3 - The Second Hyperliquid

This is the most optimistic perspective, that is, "in a bull market, FDV is just a meme, only circulating market cap matters."

The initial circulating supply of $ME is even smaller than that of $HYPE ($ME has only a 12.5% initial circulation, which is 125 million tokens), the chip allocation is also well done, and it is also a project with strong profitability and growth potential. Based on these three points, the most optimistic group of players believe that $ME should become the second $HYPE and run to 40U.

$ME's profitability in the NFT market is leading by a large margin, and it has a DEX positioning on Bitcoin. In the past year, ME's revenue, without considering Runes, is already 20 times that of Blur, and Blur's current circulating market cap is approximately $760 million. In their respective races, both $ME and $HYPE are expected to lead through profitability + expectations.

There is also a flaw in this perspective because $HYPE is "self-reliant," pulling itself up in its own territory without appearing on any Tier 1 CEX. While $ME has already confirmed listing on Binance and only Coinbase and Upbit are left among the major CEXs. Therefore, the objective environment of these two coins is still very different, and it is not possible to simply compare whether $ME will rise all the way like $HYPE just by looking at the circulating market cap.

Conclusion

The above views are just observations made by the author and do not constitute any investment advice. In fact, everyone is just looking for a reason to sell or hold, but whether we can reach the other shore often depends on a blurry hindsight.

Hopefully, the above information can provide some help in finding a $ME strategy that suits your own situation.