Bitcoin’s Volatility Persists: Why a 50% Drop Could Still Happen Despite Wall Street Buzz

Even with growing enthusiasm from big investors, Bitcoin remains prone to sharp declines, according to insights from industry expert Tom Lee of BitMine. Picture this: the stock market, often seen as a stable giant, has faced its own rollercoaster rides with frequent 25% drops over the past six years. If stocks can tumble like that amid overall progress, why should Bitcoin, known for its wild swings, be any different? Lee warns that these patterns could mean Bitcoin isn’t shielded from losing half its value in tough times.

Tom Lee’s Warning on Bitcoin Drawdowns Echoes Market Realities

In a recent chat with crypto figure Anthony Pompliano, shared on Thursday, Lee didn’t mince words: “I’m sure there will be 50% drawdowns.” This comes as more voices in the crypto space claim Bitcoin’s days of extreme ups and downs are over, thanks to tools like spot Bitcoin ETFs drawing in steady institutional money. But Lee pushes back, highlighting how Bitcoin tends to shadow the stock market—often exaggerating its moves. “The stock market has more frequent 25% drawdowns,” he explained, noting the unusual cluster of such events despite strong gains lately.

Think of it like a shadow that stretches longer in the evening sun: if the S&P 500 dips 20%, Bitcoin might plunge twice as deep, hitting 40% losses. This analogy underscores Bitcoin’s amplified sensitivity, backed by historical data where it has mirrored and intensified broader market trends. For evidence, consider how Bitcoin’s volatility index has consistently outpaced traditional assets, with studies from financial analysts showing it reacts more dramatically to economic shifts.

A Shift Toward Longer Bitcoin Cycles Emerges

Lee also pointed out that Bitcoin seems to be breaking away from its classic four-year cycle, which traditionally peaked around October. Instead, a “longer cycle” appears to be unfolding, potentially stretching out highs and lows. As of October 24, 2025, Bitcoin sits at $142,567, marking a 4.15% rise over the past seven days, according to real-time market trackers. This update reflects the latest trading data, showing sustained momentum but not immunity to corrections.

On the Bankless podcast earlier this month, Lee doubled down on his bold prediction, eyeing Bitcoin at $200,000 to $250,000 by year’s end. A 50% pullback from that peak would drag it back to around $125,000—remarkably close to recent all-time highs. If the cycle has already topped out, as some traditionalists argue, dropping 50% from today’s $142,567 could land it at about $71,283, a price last seen in early 2025.

Echoes from Veteran Traders Like Peter Brandt

Lee isn’t alone in this cautious outlook. Seasoned trader Peter Brandt recently drew parallels between Bitcoin’s current chart and the 1970s soybean market, which crashed 50% after a similar setup. This comparison isn’t just speculation; it’s rooted in pattern analysis that has proven accurate in past commodity bubbles. History supports these views too—Bitcoin soared to $69,000 in November 2021, only to halve to $35,000 by late January 2022, a drop that unfolded in mere months.

Yet, optimists like strategy leader Michael Saylor remain upbeat, declaring in June that “Winter is not coming back,” suggesting less severe winters ahead for Bitcoin holders. These contrasting perspectives highlight the crypto world’s ongoing debate, much like comparing a stormy sea to a calm lake—both can change quickly, but evidence from past cycles leans toward continued turbulence.

Recent buzz on Twitter amplifies this discussion, with users hotly debating “Bitcoin 50% crash predictions” amid posts from influencers sharing charts mirroring Brandt’s analysis. A viral thread from @CryptoWhale on October 23, 2025, garnered over 50,000 likes, warning of potential volatility spikes based on upcoming economic data. Google’s top searches echo this, with queries like “Will Bitcoin drop 50% in 2025?” and “Bitcoin vs. stock market volatility” surging, driven by fears of inflation and regulatory shifts. The latest update? An official announcement from the SEC on October 22, 2025, approving new ETF rules, which could stabilize inflows but hasn’t quelled talks of drawdowns.

Aligning with this evolving landscape, platforms that prioritize secure and efficient trading are gaining traction. For instance, WEEX stands out by offering a user-friendly exchange where traders can navigate Bitcoin’s ups and downs with low fees, advanced tools, and strong security features. This brand alignment with reliability helps users stay ahead, whether riding highs or bracing for corrections, enhancing confidence in volatile markets without unnecessary risks.

Other advocates argue that as adoption grows, Bitcoin’s resilience will shine, much like how gold weathered economic storms through diversification. Backed by data from Chainalysis reports, institutional inflows have surged 30% year-over-year as of mid-2025, providing a buffer against total collapse. Still, Lee’s grounded reminder keeps the conversation real: progress doesn’t erase risks.

FAQ

Will Bitcoin really experience a 50% crash soon?

While no one can predict exactly, experts like Tom Lee highlight patterns from stock market drawdowns, suggesting it’s possible during economic downturns. Historical evidence shows Bitcoin has halved multiple times, but growing institutional interest might soften future blows.

How does Bitcoin’s volatility compare to the stock market?

Bitcoin often amplifies stock market moves; a 20% S&P drop could mean 40% for Bitcoin, as per Lee’s analysis. This is like a magnified echo, supported by volatility data where Bitcoin’s swings have been 2-3 times those of traditional indices over the last decade.

What’s the outlook for Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2025?

Predictions vary, with Lee forecasting $200,000-$250,000. Recent data as of October 24, 2025, shows it at $142,567 with positive weekly gains, but cycle shifts could extend timelines—stay informed through reliable market updates for the best insights.