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Analysis: BTC has widely benefited from a bullish bias before the close of the upside window, still leaving around 20% to 25% upside potential.
BlockBeats News, July 17th, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published a market insight pointing out that Bitcoin's short-term holders MVRV indicates there is still room for upside. In this current cycle, short-term holders (STH) have never exceeded the 42% unrealized profit threshold, which can be seen through their MVRV indicator. Each time the STH MVRV reaches around 1.35 (corresponding to +35% unrealized profit), profit-taking behavior is triggered, usually followed by a short-term pullback. Currently, we are far from this level, with the current STH MVRV at around 1.15.
The main reason is that the realized price of short-term holders first broke above $100,000 on July 11th, reaching a historic high. This price has now even exceeded $102,000. Therefore, until we revisit the key MVRV threshold, BTC still has about 20% to 25% upside potential. In other words, there may still be a bullish window before the next round of widespread profit-taking begins.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is an indicator used to assess the market condition of cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. It measures investors' unrealized profits or losses by comparing market value with realized value, commonly used to determine whether the market is overheated or undervalued. In this case, the value specifically refers to short-term holders.
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